Weekly Forex Market Update

Market Outlook

On Friday, the Indian rupee has erased some of its intraday gains but trading higher by 37 paise at 71.0100 per dollar. However, it rose to 70.7050 after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced several measures to promote investment and growth.Throughout the week it traded in the range of 70.7050-72.0800. The move was imperative as we are in a low demand cycle amid global idiosyncrasies. RBI has been providing support to the economy by reducing interest rates since 2019 however economy needed some boost from the fiscal front as well.

Fundamental News

  • The Fed lowered interest rates for the second time this year to the 1.75%-2% range from the previous 2%-2.25% range.
  • The British pound surged to new highs against the euro and dollar Friday on optimism that the U.K. and EU will avoid a disorderly Brexit on Oct. 31, although the basis of such hopes remained open to question.

Global Updates

  • UK retail sales drop 0.3% m/m in August vs. 0.0% expected.
  • SNB leaves key rate unchanged at -0.75%.
  • Japan’s Motegi: Wants confirmation that no additional auto tariffs will be imposed in US trade talks.
  • Swiss government slashes 2019 growth forecast to 0.8% vs. 1.2% previous.
  • China’s August data dump: Industrial production rises 4.4%.
  • China State Council: Will exclude some agricultural products including soybeans and pork from additional tariffs on US goods.

USDINR last week found resistance on higher levels broke its support but unable to sustain below it. Now, sustaining above 71.0000 mark in upcoming week currency pair shows bullish movements towards its resistance zone of 72.0000. On lower levels 70.5000 is act as strong support for it.

EURINR after positive opening of the week unable to sustain on higher levels and closed below its support. Currency pair continue bearish movements if able to break its immediate support of 78.2000 and drag towards strong support of 77.0000. On upward side psychological level of 80.0000 is seen as strong resistance.

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