Weekly Commodity Report

Gold prices fall after Dollar Surges on China, U.S. Consumer Data

Dollar bulls seem to making more of the back and forth on the U.S.-China trade talks than gold bugs.Bullion and futures of gold hit two-week lows on Friday, breaking decisively from the bullish $1,300 levels, after China’s state-run media expressed impatience over the progress of trade negotiations with Washington. The dollar hit two-week highs, bolstered also by a 15-year high in U.S. consumer sentiment. Unlike many assets, gold is in a unique position in the U.S.-China trade war. A positive resolution on that means bullion could benefit from more jewelry and other bullion-related consumption in China. A negative outcome could bolster gold’s standing as a safe-haven hedge against further weakening in Chinese growth.

Crude Oil Slides as Iran War Talk Loses Traction

Iran and oil’s war worries have to wait. Attention is back to China and the trade war. West Texas Intermediate futures, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled down 11 cents, or 0.2%, at $62.75 per barrel. It hit a two-week high of $63.64 earlier on fears that a new war might break out in the Persian Gulf after Saudi Arabia accused Iran of sabotaging the kingdom’s oil infrastructure. The combined oil and gas rig count is 987, with oil seeing a 42-rig decrease year on year and gas rigs down 15 since this time last year. The combined oil and gas rig count is down 59 year on year.

LME base metals lower amid US dollar gains

Trading volumes were thin over the day, with copper volumes leading the complex at just over 10,000 lots exchanged.  Low liquidity conditions continue to typify the base metals complex, with investors maintaining a broadly risk-averse approach to metals, while resurgence in the trade disputes between the United States and China has further capped buying this week.  The three-month zinc futures price was the worst performing metal over the afternoon, falling by more than 1% to reach an intraday low of $2,593 per tonne and closing at $2,600 per tonne.

TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Gold last week showed strong bearish movement and also broke its psychological support level of 32000. For upcoming trading session it will continue with downward trend and also test its bullish support line i.e. 31500 levels. On higher side, if price push for some recovery from lower levels then it can find immediate resistance level of 32100 and if price manages above this level then we expect more upside movement up to next important resistance level of 32400.

STRATEGY

Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 31700 for the target of 31200 with stop loss of 32300.

TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Silver last week took reversal movement from its bearish resistance line as shown in daily chart and showed strong downward side movement. For upcoming session, if price breach its lower key line i.e. 36500 levels then again bearish bias will continue and this momentum can take price towards next psychological level of 36000 and upper side it has immediate resistance of 37000 and above this level it can take quick recovery from lower levels up to next resistance of 37500 and after that again bullish bias will active.

STRATEGY

Better strategy in MCX SILVER is to sell below 36400 for the target of 35400, with stop loss of 37400.

TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Crude oil last week was quite positive. For upcoming period we will continue to suggest bullish trend, if price trades above 4500 and after that 4600 will act as a next important resistance level. On lower side it has initial support of 4400 and if price sustains below this level then it will push for some correction from higher to lower side towards next strong correctional level of 4300 and below this level we will keep bearish overview toward next support of 4200.

STRATEGY

Better strategy in MCX CRUDE is to sell below 4350 for the target of 4150, with stop loss of 4550.

TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX Copper last week showed sideways to bearish movement and close around its major support level of 425. For upcoming week we will keep bearish overview, if price breaks and trades below 425 and after that this downward side movement can find next strong support of 415. On upward side it has major resistance of 435 and if price maintains above this level then 445 will act as a next strong resistance level as well as trend may also change.

STRATEGY

Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 423 for the target of 413, with stop loss of 435.

Guar gum showed bearish movement last week, and found its important support around the level of 8812. If the prices sustains below its support level of 8800 then the bearish momentum will take prices up to 8600 level. On other hand if the prices maintains above 9050 then prices may find the next resistance level of 9250.

 

Soyaref showed bullish movement last week and found the resistance level of 747.50. If the prices maintain above its resistance level of 748 then the bullish momentum will take prices up to 758 levels. On other hand if the prices sustain below 734 then prices may find the next support level of 724.

 

Turmeric showed sideways movement last week, and able to found its important support level of 7234. If the prices maintain above its resistance level of 7250 then the bullish momentum will take prices 7450 level. On other hand if the prices sustains below the support level of 6900 then prices find the next support level of 6700.

 

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