Forex Weekly Market Update

Market Outlook

Rupee opened on Monday at moderate loss by 10 paisa at 65.1000 and closed on Friday at 65.0000 flat from previous close due to increased demand for the US currency from foreign fund outflows and importers and banks.

The fear of global trade war sent stocks markets declining and investors rushing for the safety of currencies like the yen and govt. bonds after Donald Trump announced tariffs on up to $60 Billion of Chinese goods.

Fundamental News

  • The JPY reached to its highest level of 16 months and the Swiss franc surged on Friday as the growing threat of a trade war prompted investors to take shelter in perceived low-yielding currencies.
  • The outlook for the currency amid threats of a global trade war due to this Sterling consolidated gains after posting its biggest weekly rise in six weeks.

Global Updates

  • Industrial Output (YoY) of Mexico registered (-0.4%) in December: Actual (-0.9%).
  • Integration Test Retail Sales of United Kingdom (YoY) above forecasts (5.3%) in October: Actual (7.4%).
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of South Africa registered at -2.90% and forecasts is -2.10%.
  • United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends of United Kingdom Survey – Orders (MoM) below forecasts (9) in March: Actual (4)
  • Greece Current Account (YoY) of Greece climbed from previous €-1.241B to €-0.586B in January.
  • Industrial Production (YoY) of Austria rose from previous 3.5% to 6.1% in January.

USDINR

USDINR form reversal pattern on weekly chart after increase in interest rate from FED by 25 basis points and trade war between China and USA. Now, if it drags below 65.0000 support zone then correction is expected in currency pair towards next support level of 64.7000-64.5000. On higher side 65.3000 is major resistance for it above which it may continue bullish movements.

EURINR

EURINR showed sideways to negative movements throughout the week closed around its psychological support level of 80.0000 below this it may give bearish movements and find support around 79.7000-79.0000 level. Currency pair showed zigzag movements so on higher side 80.7000 is act as crucial resistance level breakout above this mark it may find next resistance near 82.000 level.

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